Lateral entry into the VET system can be considered a highly promising prospect for the socio-economic integration of young refugees in Germany. With this in mind, multiple active labor market programs (ALMPs) for refugees have been launched and expanded, the best known being the ESF-BAMF program and various measures provided by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA). Using data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees (2016–2021) (Brücker et al. 2016), this article applies a discrete-time hazard rate model (N = 6004) to examine whether participation in either of these ALMPs is associated with increased chances of refugees aged 18–30 transitioning to VET. The multivariate analyses indicate that participation in neither the ESF-BAMF program nor the FEA measures is associated with a significant change in the transition chances for refugees aged 18–24, yet both are associated with a significant increase in these chances for refugees aged 25–30. In view of the comparative disadvantage of older refugees in the German VET market, this result can be interpreted as a considerable success in terms of the effectiveness of the respective programs. © The Author(s) 2025.
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