Curriculum updates in vocational education and changes in graduates’ skills and wages

Abstract

This paper examines the relation between the nature of updates in training curricula and graduates’ skills and wages. Using vocational education and training (VET) curriculum texts as data, we apply natural language processing methods to identify the nature of changes in curriculum updates based on before-after comparisons of the skills the curricula contain. We introduce and measure two dimensions of curriculum updates: the ‘novelty rate’ (degree of new skills entering an updated curriculum) and the ‘removal rate’ (degree of old skills dropped from an old curriculum). By matching these dimensions to labour market data for VET graduates, we empirically investigate the relation between different types of curriculum updates and the wages of graduates with updated curricula compared to those of graduates with old curricula. We find non-linear relations and complementarities between the dimensions of updates and graduates’ wages: while adding lots of new skills without removing old ones is not favourable, removing old skills is favourable across all curriculum updates. A further analysis on the actual skills that are added or removed illustrates the trade-offs that curriculum designers face. Given the economic importance of optimally preparing young workers for the labour market, our results provide crucial insights for educational policymakers. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Keywords

Author Keywords

vocational education and training changes in skills curriculum text as data Nature of curriculum updates

Index Keywords

Author Affiliations

Department of Business Administration, Universität Zürich, Zurich, ZH, Switzerland

Funding & Acknowledgements

Staatssekretariat für Bildung, Forschung und Innovation, SBFI

Grant: 1315002234

This study is partly funded by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation (SERI) through its Leading House on the Economics of Education, Firm Behaviour and Training Policies. The work was supported by the\u00A0Staatssekretariat f\u00FCr Bildung, Forschung und Innovation [Leading House VPET-ECON, Grant Nr. 1315002234]. We would like to thank the referees as well as the following individuals for their help and suggestions: Eric Bettinger, Christian Eggenberger, Dietmar Harhoff, Simon Janssen, Fabienne Kiener, Alice Lam, Guido Neidh\u00F6fer, conference participants at SASE, at COPE, at AEDE and at the First International Leading House Conference on the \u2018Economics of Vocational Education and Training\u2019, as well as seminar participants at the University of Zurich for helpful comments, Natalie Reid for language consulting, Benjamin Weber for excellent research assistance, and the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for provision of the labour market data (Contract Nr. 220240). Open access funding was provided by the University of Zurich.

Staatssekretariat für Bildung, Forschung und Innovation, SBFI

This study is partly funded by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation (SERI) through its Leading House on the Economics of Education, Firm Behaviour and Training Policies. The work was supported by the\u00A0Staatssekretariat f\u00FCr Bildung, Forschung und Innovation [Leading House VPET-ECON, Grant Nr. 1315002234]. We would like to thank the referees as well as the following individuals for their help and suggestions: Eric Bettinger, Christian Eggenberger, Dietmar Harhoff, Simon Janssen, Fabienne Kiener, Alice Lam, Guido Neidh\u00F6fer, conference participants at SASE, at COPE, at AEDE and at the First International Leading House Conference on the \u2018Economics of Vocational Education and Training\u2019, as well as seminar participants at the University of Zurich for helpful comments, Natalie Reid for language consulting, Benjamin Weber for excellent research assistance, and the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for provision of the labour market data (Contract Nr. 220240). Open access funding was provided by the University of Zurich.

Universität Zürich, UZH

Grant: 220240

This study is partly funded by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation (SERI) through its Leading House on the Economics of Education, Firm Behaviour and Training Policies. The work was supported by the\u00A0Staatssekretariat f\u00FCr Bildung, Forschung und Innovation [Leading House VPET-ECON, Grant Nr. 1315002234]. We would like to thank the referees as well as the following individuals for their help and suggestions: Eric Bettinger, Christian Eggenberger, Dietmar Harhoff, Simon Janssen, Fabienne Kiener, Alice Lam, Guido Neidh\u00F6fer, conference participants at SASE, at COPE, at AEDE and at the First International Leading House Conference on the \u2018Economics of Vocational Education and Training\u2019, as well as seminar participants at the University of Zurich for helpful comments, Natalie Reid for language consulting, Benjamin Weber for excellent research assistance, and the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for provision of the labour market data (Contract Nr. 220240). Open access funding was provided by the University of Zurich.

Universität Zürich, UZH

This study is partly funded by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation (SERI) through its Leading House on the Economics of Education, Firm Behaviour and Training Policies. The work was supported by the\u00A0Staatssekretariat f\u00FCr Bildung, Forschung und Innovation [Leading House VPET-ECON, Grant Nr. 1315002234]. We would like to thank the referees as well as the following individuals for their help and suggestions: Eric Bettinger, Christian Eggenberger, Dietmar Harhoff, Simon Janssen, Fabienne Kiener, Alice Lam, Guido Neidh\u00F6fer, conference participants at SASE, at COPE, at AEDE and at the First International Leading House Conference on the \u2018Economics of Vocational Education and Training\u2019, as well as seminar participants at the University of Zurich for helpful comments, Natalie Reid for language consulting, Benjamin Weber for excellent research assistance, and the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for provision of the labour market data (Contract Nr. 220240). Open access funding was provided by the University of Zurich.

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Curriculum updates in vocational education and changes in graduates’ skills and wages

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