Governments across the European Union (EU) have pledged a stronger commitment to vocational education and training (VET) in response to economic structural change. But have states actually become more central to skill formation? Using mixed methods, this paper examines whether state involvement in European skill formation systems has increased over the past two decades. Applying seeded Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modeling to 291 standardized descriptions of VET systems, the study finds that language associated with state involvement grew notably in most EU member states compared to private governance between 2005 and 2022. An in-depth case study of Germany, a least likely case for increased state intervention, confirms these findings qualitatively and explores why governments intervene in VET systems. Drawing on 32 elite interviews, the study highlights how digitalization and climate change imperatives have created a window of opportunity for redefining the role of the state in VET. © 2025 The Author(s). Regulation & Governance published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
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