Vocational education systems (VET) convey occupation-specific skills to their students. If the demand for the particular skills is scarce at the time when VET graduates attempt to enter the labor market, they run the risk of not being able to make use of them. This is not only the case when VET graduates become unemployed but also when they have to change the occupation. This paper investigates, first, whether the vacancies in the occupation for which the VET graduate is trained and those for which he or she is not trained affect the likelihood of finding a job in the certified occupation, changing the occupation or becoming unemployed. Second, the paper examines how the strength of the demand for occupation-specific skills modifies the influence of educational and individual factors on the three options of labor market entry. Switzerland known for its vocational education system and occupation-specific segmented labor market serves as empirical reference. The multinomial logistic regression models are based on the Swiss PISA/TREE panel data, focusing on VET graduates. We link the individual data on VET graduates to the job advertisement data of the Swiss Job Market Monitor (SJMM), matching the occupation-specific vacancies and those outside the certified occupation by occupation, year, and region. The link between the supply and demand sides of occupational skills at the individual level of labor market entrants offers the unique opportunity to assess the fundamental significance of job opportunities for labor market entry. © 2015, Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden.
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